The impact of COVID-19 on unemployment dynamics: a panel analysis of youth and gender-specific unemployment in European countries

This study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on unemployment dynamics, focusing on youth unemployment and gender-specific disparities across 20 European countries from 2013 to 2022. Using a panel structural vector autoregressive (PSVAR) model, the study analyzes the effects of the pandemic on total unemployment, youth unemployment (ages 15–24), and gender differences in unemployment rates. The results reveal that youth unemployment was disproportionately affected by the COVID-19 shock, with significant increases observed in countries with high pre-pandemic unemployment rates, such as Greece and Spain. Additionally, gender inequality in unemployment rates was exacerbated, particularly in countries like Greece, where women consistently faced higher unemployment rates than men throughout the observed period. The study also highlights the significant role of excess mortality during the pandemic, with countries experiencing higher COVID-19 mortality rates, such as Italy and Spain, also showing higher unemployment rates. These findings contribute to the understanding of how economic shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, exacerbate the existing labor market inequalities, particularly for vulnerable demographic groups such as youth and women. The study calls for targeted policy interventions to address these disparities and promote a more inclusive recovery.