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Does information security attack frequency increase with vulnerability disclosure? An empirical analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Ashish Arora

    (Carnegie Mellon University)

  • Anand Nandkumar

    (Carnegie Mellon University)

  • Rahul Telang

    (Carnegie Mellon University)

Abstract

Research in information security, risk management and investment has grown in importance over the last few years. However, without reliable estimates on attack probabilities, risk management is difficult to do in practice. Using a novel data set, we provide estimates on attack propensity and how it changes with disclosure and patching of vulnerabilities. Disclosure of software vulnerability has been controversial. On one hand are those who propose full and instant disclosure whether the patch is available or not and on the other hand are those who argue for limited or no disclosure. Which of the two policies is socially optimal depends critically on how attack frequency changes with disclosure and patching. In this paper, we empirically explore the impact of vulnerability information disclosure and availability of patches on attacks targeting the vulnerability. Our results suggest that on an average both secret (non-published) and published (published and not patched) vulnerabilities attract fewer attacks than patched (published and patched) vulnerabilities. When we control for time since publication and patches, we find that patching an already known vulnerability decreases the number of attacks, although attacks gradually increase with time after patch release. Patching an unknown vulnerability, however, causes a spike in attacks, which then gradually decline after patch release. Attacks on secret vulnerabilities slowly increase with time until the vulnerability is published and then attacks rapidly decrease with time after publication.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashish Arora & Anand Nandkumar & Rahul Telang, 2006. "Does information security attack frequency increase with vulnerability disclosure? An empirical analysis," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 8(5), pages 350-362, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:infosf:v:8:y:2006:i:5:d:10.1007_s10796-006-9012-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10796-006-9012-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Karthik Kannan & Rahul Telang, 2005. "Market for Software Vulnerabilities? Think Again," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(5), pages 726-740, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Xing Gao & Weijun Zhong, 2015. "Information security investment for competitive firms with hacker behavior and security requirements," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 235(1), pages 277-300, December.
    2. Ravi Sen & Joobin Choobineh & Subodha Kumar, 2020. "Determinants of Software Vulnerability Disclosure Timing," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 29(11), pages 2532-2552, November.
    3. Hui, Kai-Lung & Zhou, Jiali, 2020. "The Economics of Hacking," MPRA Paper 102706, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Lam, W., 2015. "Attack-Deterring and Damage-Control Investments in Cybersecurity," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2015023, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    5. Taylor J. Canann, 2013. "Software Vulnerability Analysis in Cyber Security: A Network Structure Approach," BYU Macroeconomics and Computational Laboratory Working Paper Series 2013-05, Brigham Young University, Department of Economics, BYU Macroeconomics and Computational Laboratory, revised Apr 2014.
    6. Xing Gao & Weijun Zhong & Shue Mei, 2015. "Security investment and information sharing under an alternative security breach probability function," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 423-438, April.
    7. Lam, Wing Man Wynne, 2014. "Ex Ante and Ex Post Investments in Cybersecurity," TSE Working Papers 14-519, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    8. Amitava Dutta & Rahul Roy, 2008. "Dynamics of organizational information security," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 24(3), pages 349-375, September.
    9. Anum Khan & Muhammad Shujaat Mubarik & Navaz Naghavi, 2023. "What matters for financial inclusions? Evidence from emerging economy," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 821-838, January.
    10. Chulhwan Chris Bang, 2015. "Information systems frontiers: Keyword analysis and classification," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 217-237, February.
    11. Arrah-Marie Jo, 2019. "Software vulnerability disclosure and security investment [L'impact de la divulgation d’une faille de sécurité : au-delà des motivations de l’éditeur de logiciel]," Post-Print hal-03033198, HAL.
    12. Alain Bensoussan & Vijay Mookerjee & Wei T. Yue, 2020. "Managing Information System Security Under Continuous and Abrupt Deterioration," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 29(8), pages 1894-1917, August.
    13. Lawrence A. Gordon & Martin P. Loeb, 2006. "Economic aspects of information security: An emerging field of research," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 8(5), pages 335-337, December.
    14. Qian Tang & Andrew B. Whinston, 2020. "Do Reputational Sanctions Deter Negligence in Information Security Management? A Field Quasi‐Experiment," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 29(2), pages 410-427, February.

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