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Using Scenarios to Understand the Frontiers of IS

Author

Listed:
  • Paul Gray

    (Claremont Graduate University)

  • Anat Hovav

    (Claremont Graduate University)

Abstract

As we arrive at the millenium, the literature is filled with predictions and forecasts of the state of affairs in the 21st century. Most of these forecasts are single point prognoses. This paper uses scenario-building ideas to describe a richer set of possible states of Information Systems in the year 2010. The scenarios are integrative and consider a set of possible events and their impacts. Two major driving forces: (1) telecommunications development and (2) social acceptance of information systems (IS) are assumed to define the scenario space. Based on these driving forces, four scenarios are created: Utopian, Dystopian, Status Quo, and Technology. The Utopian (ubiquitous telecommunications, high social acceptance of IS) and Dystopian (limited gains in telecommunications, low social acceptance of IS) scenarios are described in detail. The scenarios provide a basis for assessing the frontiers of information systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Gray & Anat Hovav, 1999. "Using Scenarios to Understand the Frontiers of IS," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 15-24, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:infosf:v:1:y:1999:i:1:d:10.1023_a:1010077128073
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1010077128073
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    Cited by:

    1. Kutoma J. Wakunuma & Bernd Carsten Stahl, 2014. "Tomorrow’s ethics and today’s response: An investigation into the ways information systems professionals perceive and address emerging ethical issues," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 383-397, July.
    2. M. Lynne Markus & Kevin Mentzer, 2014. "Foresight for a responsible future with ICT," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 353-368, July.
    3. Anat Hovav, 2014. "Using scenarios to understand the frontiers of IS: Fifteen years later (a postscript)," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 347-352, July.
    4. Yogesh K. Dwivedi & Banita Lal & Navonil Mustafee & Michael D. Williams, 2009. "Profiling a decade of Information Systems Frontiers’ research," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 87-102, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    alternative IS futures; scenario space;

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