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Evaluating thermo-hydraulics uncertainties of success criteria in probabilistic risk assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Seyed Mohsen Hoseyni

    (Islamic Azad University)

  • Kaveh Karimi

    (Islamic Azad University)

  • Faramarz Yousefpour

    (Nuclear Science and Technology Research Center)

Abstract

Success criteria analysis in nuclear power plants is based on thermo-hydraulics (TH) evaluation of the plant response to postulated accidents for the development of a risk model. PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) uncertainties originate from diverse sources, including uncertainty of success criteria. A comprehensive uncertainty treatment methodology is therefore needed for the quantification of PRA uncertainty considering the success criteria uncertainty. This paper covers the topic and introduces a systematic framework for this purpose. The proposed methodology is capable of including model uncertainty of success criteria in the plant risk model which is not formally performed in industrial practice. An extension is proposed for the traditional event trees to include a new top event for taking the effect of TH uncertainties into account. The required probability density function for this top event is obtained by performing TH uncertainty analysis and statistical interpretation of the obtained results. The application of the methodology is sought by its implementation on real case of loss of coolant accident in a PWR type nuclear power plant.

Suggested Citation

  • Seyed Mohsen Hoseyni & Kaveh Karimi & Faramarz Yousefpour, 2017. "Evaluating thermo-hydraulics uncertainties of success criteria in probabilistic risk assessment," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 8(3), pages 635-645, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ijsaem:v:8:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s13198-016-0547-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s13198-016-0547-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Monika Manglik & Mangey Ram, 2015. "Behavioural analysis of a hydroelectric production power plant under reworking scheme," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(2), pages 648-664, January.
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