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TODIM with XGBOOST and MVO metaheuristic approach for portfolio optimization

Author

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  • Veena Jain

    (University of Delhi)

  • Rishi Rajan Sahay

    (University of Delhi)

  • Nupur

    (University of Delhi)

Abstract

This paper presents an innovative and comprehensive approach to portfolio optimization that integrates TODIM, a multi criteria decision making method, with the proposed forecasting model for asset selection and return prediction. The optimization process utilizes the multi-verse optimizer, a powerful metaheuristic algorithm. TODIM is initially employed to select the top 10 companies from the Nifty 100 index based on various financial indicators. Daily return predictions for the selected portfolio are enhanced through an ensemble forecasting approach, BN-XGBoost, which combines BiLSTM and N-BEATS models, with XGBoost serving as a meta-learner to improve accuracy. The portfolio optimization problem, framed as a higher-order asymmetric risk model, incorporates semi-variance, higher order moments of return, and entropy. The proposed optimization framework is compared against a variance-based model, demonstrating superior portfolio performance. This research provides valuable insights for investors seeking advanced strategies to navigate complex financial markets and achieve optimal portfolio outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Veena Jain & Rishi Rajan Sahay & Nupur, 2025. "TODIM with XGBOOST and MVO metaheuristic approach for portfolio optimization," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 16(2), pages 595-612, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:ijsaem:v:16:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s13198-024-02610-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s13198-024-02610-6
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