IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/ijsaem/v15y2024i5d10.1007_s13198-023-02222-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Demand forecasting of technological products considering re-purchasing and dynamic pricing: a modified diffusion model

Author

Listed:
  • Shakshi Singhal

    (Xavier School of Management (XLRI), Delhi NCR Campus)

  • Yasmeen Bano

    (University of Delhi)

  • Ompal Singh

    (University of Delhi)

Abstract

Accurately predicting the growth curve of technological innovations during their product life cycle is essential for a firm’s strategic planning and survival in an ever-increasing competitive environment. The dissemination of innovation among prospective customers is commonly measured using the diffusion process. Despite considerable research on modeling the diffusion dynamics of innovation, no sustainable model focuses on repurchasing behavior under the effect of price change and time-varying adoption rate. Consequently, the present study develops a new sales forecast model to analyze the propagation of technological products using the two-dimensional framework that integrates the effect of price change and its continuation time in the market. A Cobb–Douglas function has been utilized to mathematically relate the dynamic price and goodwill of the innovation to the product’s value. The dynamic behavior of the adoption rate is described using the concept of change-point. A control chart (or c-chart) is utilized to identify the change-point location in the diffusion process of the technological products. The proposed model is fitted to the historical data from two industries, Electronics and Automobiles, using a non-linear least square (NLS) estimation procedure to demonstrate its practical applicability. The empirical analysis shows that the proposed model fits better than well-established diffusion models.

Suggested Citation

  • Shakshi Singhal & Yasmeen Bano & Ompal Singh, 2024. "Demand forecasting of technological products considering re-purchasing and dynamic pricing: a modified diffusion model," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 15(5), pages 1981-1998, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ijsaem:v:15:y:2024:i:5:d:10.1007_s13198-023-02222-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s13198-023-02222-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13198-023-02222-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s13198-023-02222-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:ijsaem:v:15:y:2024:i:5:d:10.1007_s13198-023-02222-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.