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Forecasting the number of Arab and foreign tourists in Egypt using ARIMA models

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  • Eman Ahmed Aly Ismail

    (Arab Academy for Science Technology & Maritime Transport, Smart Village Campus)

Abstract

This study aims to explore the situation of tourism in Egypt. The data used cover the periods from 1981 till 2017. By using ARIMA models, the study forecasts the expected numbers of Arab and Foreign tourists for five consecutive years, specifically from the year 2018 till 2022. The study identifies that ARIMA (0,1,0) is the most suitable model for both time series for Arab and foreign tourists. The study implies that the number of tourists in Egypt is going to increase. However, the percentage of increase is expected to decrease throughout the 5 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Eman Ahmed Aly Ismail, 2020. "Forecasting the number of Arab and foreign tourists in Egypt using ARIMA models," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 11(2), pages 450-454, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ijsaem:v:11:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s13198-019-00873-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s13198-019-00873-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Edy SUPRIYADI & Devi Roza KAUSAR, 2017. "The Economic Impact of International Tourism to Overcome the Unemployment and the Poverty in Indonesia," Journal of Advanced Research in Management, ASERS Publishing, vol. 8(2), pages 451-459.
    2. Wenbin Luo, 2018. "Evaluating Tourist Destination Performance: Expanding the Sustainability Concept," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-16, February.
    3. repec:srs:journl:jemt:v:8:y:2017:i:2:p:451-459 is not listed on IDEAS
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