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The future of a partially effective HIV vaccine: assessing limitations at the population level

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Selinger

    (Institute for Disease Modeling)

  • Dobromir T. Dimitrov

    (Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center)

  • Philip A. Welkhoff

    (Institute for Disease Modeling)

  • Anna Bershteyn

    (Institute for Disease Modeling)

Abstract

Objectives Mathematical models have unanimously predicted that a first-generation HIV vaccine would be useful and cost-effective to roll out, but that its overall impact would be insufficient to reverse the epidemic. Here, we explore what factors contribute most to limiting the impact of such a vaccine. Methods Ranging from a theoretical ideal to a more realistic regimen, mirroring the one used in the currently ongoing trial in South Africa (HVTN 702), we model a nested hierarchy of vaccine attributes such as speed of scale-up, efficacy, durability, and return rates for booster doses. Results The predominant reasons leading to a substantial loss of vaccine impact on the HIV epidemic are the time required to scale up mass vaccination, limited durability, and waning of efficacy. Conclusions A first-generation partially effective vaccine would primarily serve as an intermediate milestone, furnishing correlates of immunity and platforms that could serve to accelerate future development of a highly effective, durable, and scalable next-generation vaccine capable of reversing the HIV epidemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Selinger & Dobromir T. Dimitrov & Philip A. Welkhoff & Anna Bershteyn, 2019. "The future of a partially effective HIV vaccine: assessing limitations at the population level," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 64(6), pages 957-964, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:ijphth:v:64:y:2019:i:6:d:10.1007_s00038-019-01234-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s00038-019-01234-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Blythe Adamson & Dobromir Dimitrov & Beth Devine & Ruanne Barnabas, 2017. "The Potential Cost-Effectiveness of HIV Vaccines: A Systematic Review," PharmacoEconomics - Open, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 1-12, March.
    2. Thomas M Harmon & Kevin A Fisher & Margaret G McGlynn & John Stover & Mitchell J Warren & Yu Teng & Arne Näveke, 2016. "Exploring the Potential Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of AIDS Vaccine within a Comprehensive HIV/AIDS Response in Low- and Middle-Income Countries," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(1), pages 1-18, January.
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