IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/hecrev/v12y2022i1d10.1186_s13561-022-00384-w.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trajectories of prices in generic drug markets: what can we infer from looking at trajectories rather than average prices?

Author

Listed:
  • Antonio J. Trujillo

    (Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University)

  • Jose C. Gutierrez

    (Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University)

  • Emmanuel E. Garcia Morales

    (Johns Hopkins University)

  • Mariana Socal

    (Department of Health Policy and Management, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University)

  • Jeromie Ballreich

    (Department of Health Policy and Management, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University)

  • Gerard Anderson

    (Department of Health Policy and Management, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University)

Abstract

Background Well-functioning competitive markets are key to controlling generic drug prices. This is important since over 90% of all drugs sold in the US are generics. Recently, there have been examples of large price increases in the generic market. Methods This paper examines price trajectories for generic drugs using a group-based trajectory modelling approach (GBTM). We fit the model using quarterly price information in the IBM MarketScan claims database for the past decade. Results We identify three dominant price trajectories for this period: rapid increase trajectories, slow decline and rapid decline. Most generic drugs show a slow or a rapid decline in price trajectories. However, around 17% of all generic drugs show rapid price increase trajectories. Conclusions As Congress is exploring an excise tax on drugs whose list price increases faster than the rate of inflation, we discuss what drugs would be most likely to be affected by this law.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonio J. Trujillo & Jose C. Gutierrez & Emmanuel E. Garcia Morales & Mariana Socal & Jeromie Ballreich & Gerard Anderson, 2022. "Trajectories of prices in generic drug markets: what can we infer from looking at trajectories rather than average prices?," Health Economics Review, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:hecrev:v:12:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1186_s13561-022-00384-w
    DOI: 10.1186/s13561-022-00384-w
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1186/s13561-022-00384-w
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1186/s13561-022-00384-w?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard G. Frank & Andrew Hicks & Ernst R. Berndt, 2019. "The Price to Consumers of Generic Pharmaceuticals: Beyond the Headlines," NBER Working Papers 26120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Ernst R. Berndt & Rena M. Conti & Stephen J. Murphy, 2017. "The Landscape of US Generic Prescription Drug Markets, 2004-2016," NBER Working Papers 23640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicholas Bagley & Benjamin Berger & Amitabh Chandra & Craig Garthwaite & Ariel D. Stern, 2018. "The Orphan Drug Act at 35: Observations and an Outlook for the Twenty-First Century," NBER Chapters, in: Innovation Policy and the Economy, Volume 19, pages 97-137, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Amitabh Chandra & Craig Garthwaite & Ariel Dora Stern, 2018. "Characterizing the Drug Development Pipeline for Precision Medicines," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Dimensions of Personalized and Precision Medicine, pages 115-157, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Alice M. Ellyson & Anirban Basu, 2018. "The New Prescription Drug Paradox: Pipeline Pressure and Rising Prices," NBER Working Papers 24387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Nguyen Xuan Nguyen & Steven H. Sheingold & Wafa Tarazi & Arielle Bosworth, 2022. "Effect of Competition on Generic Drug Prices," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 243-253, March.
    5. Granlund, David & Rudholm, Niklas, 2023. "Calculating the probability of collusion based on observed price patterns," Umeå Economic Studies 1014, Umeå University, Department of Economics, revised 13 Oct 2023.
    6. Atanu Saha & Yong Xu, 2023. "Estimating Brand Drugs’ Payoff from Pay-for-Delay Deals," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 81-99, June.
    7. Jun Li & Di (Andrew) Wu, 2022. "The Price Effect of Drug Price Ceilings: Intended and Unintended Consequences," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(8), pages 5758-5777, August.
    8. Clark, Robert & Fabiilli, Christopher & Lasio, Laura, 2022. "Collusion in the US generic drug industry," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    9. Carolyn Wolff & Randall Lutter, 2020. "Why are pharmacy acquisition costs and consumer prescription drug price indices apparently diverging?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(12), pages 1721-1727, December.
    10. Michael D. Frakes & Melissa F. Wasserman, 2020. "Investing in Ex Ante Regulation: Evidence from Pharmaceutical Patent Examination," NBER Working Papers 27579, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Leemore Dafny & Kate Ho & Edward Kong, 2024. "How Do Copayment Coupons Affect Branded Drug Prices and Quantities Purchased?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 314-346, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:hecrev:v:12:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1186_s13561-022-00384-w. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/13561 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.