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Analysis and prediction of confirmed COVID-19 cases in China with uncertain time series

Author

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  • Tingqing Ye

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Xiangfeng Yang

    (University of International Business and Economics)

Abstract

This paper presents an uncertain time series model to analyse and predict the evolution of confirmed COVID-19 cases in China, excluding imported cases. Compared with the results of the classical time series model, the uncertain time series model could better describe the COVID-19 epidemic by using an uncertain hypothesis test to filter out outliers. This improvement is reflected in the two observations. One is that the estimated variance of the disturbance term in the uncertain time series model is more appropriate and acceptable than that in the classical time series model, and the other is that the disturbance term of the classical time series model cannot be regarded as a random variable but as an uncertain variable.

Suggested Citation

  • Tingqing Ye & Xiangfeng Yang, 2021. "Analysis and prediction of confirmed COVID-19 cases in China with uncertain time series," Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 209-228, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:fuzodm:v:20:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s10700-020-09339-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10700-020-09339-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Xiangfeng Yang & Baoding Liu, 2019. "Uncertain time series analysis with imprecise observations," Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 263-278, September.
    2. Zhe Liu & Ying Yang, 2020. "Least absolute deviations estimation for uncertain regression with imprecise observations," Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 33-52, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Xiaoxia & Ma, Di & Choe, Kwang-Il, 2023. "Uncertain mean–variance portfolio model with inflation taking linear uncertainty distributions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 203-217.
    2. Jinran Chen, 2024. "Prediction of global trade network evolution with uncertain multi-step time series forecasting method," Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 387-414, September.
    3. Tingqing Ye & Baoding Liu, 2023. "Uncertain hypothesis test for uncertain differential equations," Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 195-211, June.

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