Author
Listed:
- Cosmo Strozza
(University of Southern Denmark)
- Marie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher
(University of Southern Denmark)
- Julia Callaway
(University of Southern Denmark)
- Sven Drefahl
(Stockholm University)
Abstract
In Denmark and Sweden, statutory retirement age is indexed to life expectancy to account for mortality improvements in their populations. However, mortality improvements have not been uniform across different sub-populations. Notably, in both countries, individuals of lower socioeconomic status (SES) have experienced slower mortality improvements. As a result, a uniform rise in the statutory retirement age could disproportionally affect these low-SES groups and may unintentionally lead to a reverse redistribution effect, shifting benefits from short-lived low-SES individuals to long-lived high-SES individuals. The aim of this study is twofold: to quantify and contextualise mortality inequalities by SES in Denmark and Sweden, and to assess how indexing retirement age will affect future survival to retirement age by SES in these countries. We used Danish and Swedish registry data (1988–2019), to aggregate individuals aged 50 + based on their demographic characteristics and SES. We computed period life tables by year, sex, and SES to estimate the difference in survival across different SES groups. We then forecast mortality across SES groups to assess how indexing retirement age will affect survival inequalities to retirement age, using two forecasting models—the Mode model and the Li-Lee model. Mortality inequalities are comparable in Denmark and Sweden, even though the latter generally has higher survival. We also find that indexing retirement age to life expectancy will have two main consequences: it will reduce the probability of reaching retirement for all SES groups, particularly those of low SES, and time spent in retirement will be reduced, particularly for those of high SES.
Suggested Citation
Cosmo Strozza & Marie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher & Julia Callaway & Sven Drefahl, 2024.
"Forecasting Inequalities in Survival to Retirement Age by Socioeconomic Status in Denmark and Sweden,"
European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 40(1), pages 1-28, December.
Handle:
RePEc:spr:eurpop:v:40:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s10680-024-09704-8
DOI: 10.1007/s10680-024-09704-8
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:eurpop:v:40:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s10680-024-09704-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through
the various RePEc services.