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Dynamical prediction of flu seasonality driven by ambient temperature: influenza vs. common cold

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  • Eugene B. Postnikov

Abstract

This work presents a comparative analysis of Influenzanet data for influenza itself and common cold in the Netherlands during the last 5 years, from the point of view of modelling by linearised SIRS equations parametrically driven by the ambient temperature. It is argued that this approach allows for the forecast of common cold, but not of influenza in a strict sense. The difference in their kinetic models is discussed with reference to the clinical background. Copyright EDP Sciences, SIF, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2016

Suggested Citation

  • Eugene B. Postnikov, 2016. "Dynamical prediction of flu seasonality driven by ambient temperature: influenza vs. common cold," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 89(1), pages 1-6, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurphb:v:89:y:2016:i:1:p:1-6:10.1140/epjb/e2015-50845-7
    DOI: 10.1140/epjb/e2015-50845-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Marson, Marta & Migheli, Matteo & Saccone, Donatella, 2022. "Free to Die: Economic Freedoms and Influenza Mortality," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 202210, University of Turin.
    2. Postnikov, Eugene B., 2020. "Estimation of COVID-19 dynamics “on a back-of-envelope”: Does the simplest SIR model provide quantitative parameters and predictions?," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).

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    Keywords

    Statistical and Nonlinear Physics;

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