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Prediction of extreme events in the OFC model on a small world network

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  • F. Caruso
  • H. Kantz

Abstract

We investigate the predictability of extreme events in a dissipative Olami-Feder-Christensen model on a small world topology. Due to the mechanism of self-organized criticality, it is impossible to predict the magnitude of the next event knowing previous ones, if the system has an infinite size. However, by exploiting the finite size effects, we show that probabilistic predictions of the occurrence of extreme events in the next time step are possible in a finite system. In particular, the finiteness of the system unavoidably leads to repulsive temporal correlations of extreme events. The predictability of those is higher for larger magnitudes and for larger complex network sizes. Finally, we show that our prediction analysis is also robust by remarkably reducing the accessible number of events used to construct the optimal predictor. Copyright EDP Sciences, SIF, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2011

Suggested Citation

  • F. Caruso & H. Kantz, 2011. "Prediction of extreme events in the OFC model on a small world network," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 79(1), pages 7-11, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurphb:v:79:y:2011:i:1:p:7-11
    DOI: 10.1140/epjb/e2010-10635-5
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    Cited by:

    1. Sarlis, Nicholas V. & Skordas, Efthimios S. & Varotsos, Panayiotis A. & Ramírez-Rojas, Alejandro & Flores-Márquez, E. Leticia, 2019. "Investigation of the temporal correlations between earthquake magnitudes before the Mexico M8.2 earthquake on 7 September 2017," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 517(C), pages 475-483.
    2. Sarlis, Nicholas V. & Skordas, Efthimios S. & Varotsos, Panayiotis A. & Ramírez-Rojas, Alejandro & Flores-Márquez, E. Leticia, 2018. "Natural time analysis: On the deadly Mexico M8.2 earthquake on 7 September 2017," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 506(C), pages 625-634.

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