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Age-period-cohort analysis of depression trends: are depressive symptoms increasing across generations in Germany?

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  • Johannes Beller

    (Hannover Medical School, Center for Public Health and Health Care, Medical Sociology Unit)

Abstract

Several studies have examined trends in depression, but only few have explicitly considered possible generational differences. I examined changes in the burden of depressive symptoms between 2002 and 2017 according to age, time period and birth cohort in Germany. I used population-based data drawn from the German Aging Survey (N = 33,723, 54% female, ages 40 +) from 2002, 2008, 2011, 2014, and 2017. Depressive symptoms were measured via the CES-D 15. Hierarchical age-period-cohort models were used to examine trends in depression. I found that depressive symptoms changed across age, time period and birth cohorts. While there was a general decrease across time periods, strong evidence for a U-shaped cohort effect was also found: Younger generations, beginning with cohorts born after the World War II, increasingly report more depressive symptoms than older generations. This U-shaped cohort trend appeared most pronounced for the somatic symptoms subscale. Contrarily, only minimal cohort differences were found regarding the positive affect subscale. Therefore, depressive symptoms, and especially somatic symptoms, seem to increase in more recent birth cohorts in Germany, who might thus be at risk to experience more mental health problems in the future. Potential reasons for these trends and the generalizability of the results to other countries should be investigated by future studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Johannes Beller, 2022. "Age-period-cohort analysis of depression trends: are depressive symptoms increasing across generations in Germany?," European Journal of Ageing, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 1493-1505, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eujoag:v:19:y:2022:i:4:d:10.1007_s10433-022-00732-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10433-022-00732-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Reither, Eric N. & Masters, Ryan K. & Yang, Yang Claire & Powers, Daniel A. & Zheng, Hui & Land, Kenneth C., 2015. "Should age-period-cohort studies return to the methodologies of the 1970s?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 356-365.
    2. Jahanvash Karim & Robert Weisz & Zainab Bibi & Shafiq Ur Rehman, 2015. "Validation of the Eight-Item Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D) Among Older Adults," Post-Print hal-01796436, HAL.
    3. Gemma Vilagut & Carlos G Forero & Gabriela Barbaglia & Jordi Alonso, 2016. "Screening for Depression in the General Population with the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression (CES-D): A Systematic Review with Meta-Analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(5), pages 1-17, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bell, Andrew & Evans, Clare & Holman, Daniel & Leckie, George, 2023. "Extending intersectional Multilevel Analysis of Individual Heterogeneity and Discriminatory Accuracy (MAIHDA) for longitudinal data, with application to mental health trajectories in the UK," SocArXiv jq57s, Center for Open Science.
    2. Bell, Andrew & Evans, Clare & Holman, Dan & Leckie, George, 2024. "Extending intersectional multilevel analysis of individual heterogeneity and discriminatory accuracy (MAIHDA) to study individual longitudinal trajectories, with application to mental health in the UK," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 351(C).

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