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Le grandi Opere Pubbliche: fiscal multipliers of public infrastructure in Italy (1870–1998)

Author

Listed:
  • Maria Cristina Barbieri Góes

    (Link Campus University)

  • Giovanna Ciaffi

    (University of Bari)

  • Santiago José Gahn

    (Niccolò Cusano University)

Abstract

Considering the recently revived debate on the role and effectiveness of public infrastructure investment, this paper seeks to cover a gap in the empirical literature. In particular, we aim to tackle the lack of analysis of fiscal multipliers for large public infrastructure projects in Italy at the aggregate level. To do so, we combine the Jordà–Schularick–Taylor Macrohistory Dataset and ISTAT Time-series data on large public infrastructure projects to calculate fiscal multipliers of public infrastructure projects (‘opere pubbliche’) in Italy for the period 1870–1998. Taking Structural Vector Regression and Local Projections as benchmark methodologies, our results suggest that public infrastructure multipliers in Italy are higher than those found in the literature for generic public consumption and investment. In addition, our estimations show that public expenditure net of infrastructure investment multipliers, besides being much smaller compared with public infrastructure multipliers, remain above one for a reduced time-period, stressing their transitory nature.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Cristina Barbieri Góes & Giovanna Ciaffi & Santiago José Gahn, 2025. "Le grandi Opere Pubbliche: fiscal multipliers of public infrastructure in Italy (1870–1998)," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 42(1), pages 155-180, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:epolit:v:42:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s40888-024-00353-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s40888-024-00353-y
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    Keywords

    Italy; Government spending; Government investment; Public infrastructure; Fiscal multipliers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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