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Spatiotemporal evolution of tourism ecological security alerts: evaluation and trend prediction

Author

Listed:
  • Bin Zhou

    (Ningbo University)

  • Lu-ting Wang

    (Ningbo University)

  • Hu Yu

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Yu-xin Wang

    (Ningbo University)

Abstract

Tourism ecological safety (TES) warning is of great significance for eco-environmental protection and low-carbon development. We constructed a early warning index system of TES for the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration (YRDUA), building on the pressure-state-response social-economic-environment framework model and used the entropy-based technique for order of preference (TOPSIS) method. The spatiotemporal grid of tourism eco-security warning in YRDUA from 2007 to 2020 were analyzed, using the entropy-based TOPSIS method and spatial Markov chain. The results indicated that from 2007 to 2019, the average value of TES posting progress, Ci, of YRDUA increased from 0.3869 to 0.5649, portraying an overall upward trend. The corresponding TES warning level of “heavy warning”-level cities continued to decrease, whereas that of the “light warning” and “medium warning”-level cities dominated gradually. Further, the spatial spillover effect of the evolutionary of the level of TES in YRDUA portrayed a continuous increase, and we also observed a “club convergence” phenomenon in the spatiotemporal transfer of the alarm situation. Moreover, the TES of YRDUA during 2021–2028 portrayed a “light” warning state, and the warning level of the Suzhou-Shanghai area was not as optimistic. This paper can serve as a guide for the regulation of potential risks related to TES for tourism destinations not just in China but also other countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Bin Zhou & Lu-ting Wang & Hu Yu & Yu-xin Wang, 2025. "Spatiotemporal evolution of tourism ecological security alerts: evaluation and trend prediction," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 7481-7502, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:27:y:2025:i:3:d:10.1007_s10668-023-04202-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-023-04202-z
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