Decoupling and decomposition analysis of industrial carbon emissions and economic growth in China from a dynamic perspective

China faces the formidable challenge of balancing economic growth with carbon emissions reduction. Therefore, clarifying the decoupling relationship between the two is crucial for formulating effective carbon mitigation policies and achieving this balance. Previous studies often investigate the decoupling at a static perspective that may introduce some errors. In this paper, we propose to conduct such research from a dynamic perspective, and we apply it to carry out a study focusing on China’s provincial industrial carbon emissions (ICE) and industrial value-add (IVA) from 2001 to 2020. Additionally, using the Log-Mean Divisia Index (LMDI), we further explored the factors influencing changes in ICE. The results underscore the necessity of a dynamic perspective due to the observed non-linear interannual variation observed in ICE, IVA, industrial energy consumption (IEC), and population. Most provinces exhibit an increasing decoupling trend between ICE and IVA, with the majority still in a status of weak decoupling over the long-term interval (2001–2020). Among the four factors analyzed, energy intensity and economic intensity emerge as the primary contributor to decreasing and increasing ICE, respectively. Carbon intensity and population exhibit both positive and negative effects on increasing ICE, with the positive generally outweighing the negative. To effectively reduce carbon emissions, China should tailor differentiated policies for each provincial region considering both their absolute emission amounts and decoupling evolution trajectories. Furthermore, efforts should be made to expand the use of renewable energy, optimize the energy mix, and adopt cleaner technologies.