The impact of precipitation change on grain production pattern: new evidence from the northward movement of 400 mm annual precipitation line in China

Precipitation change caused by climate warming is an important perspective to explain the change in grain production pattern. Based on the panel data of 272 cities in mainland China from 2001 to 2016, the present paper evaluates the effect of precipitation change on grain production pattern by utilizing the spatial econometric model and the threshold model. It is found that China’s grain production pattern is gradually shifting from south to north, and the growth rate of precipitation in the northern region is higher than that in the southern region. Empirical evidence reveals precipitation has a significantly positive effect on grain output in the northern region but not in the southern region, which becomes an important drive for the evolution of China’s grain production pattern from south to north. Besides, results from the threshold model show precipitation change has the most significant impact on grain production along the 400 mm annual precipitation line. The northward movement of 400 mm annual precipitation line is an important drive for the evolution of grain production pattern from south to north in China. These evidences could effectively explain the fact that the northern inland China has become the main grain production regions mainly due to the 400 mm equipluve northward movement, where these regions are unsuitable from grain production in history.