Policy effects of new energy vehicle pilot on China’s economy and CO2 emissions: a quasi-natural experiment based on synthetic control method

This paper aims to evaluate the impact of new energy vehicle pilot policy on the economy and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of the first batch of pilot cities in China. It provides a new basis for the study of carbon emission reduction policies of China's transportation industry and a new path for the development of emission reduction measures of other industries. Using the latest NEV economic and CO2 emission data of 58 large- and medium-sized cities in China from 2003 to 2017 taken from the China Statistical Yearbook, we conducted a quasi-natural experiment based on the synthetic control method after accounting. In order to exclude other exogenous shocks that might affect the assessment results, we employed multiple placebo tests to verify the robustness and validity of the empirical results. The results showed that pilot policy for new energy vehicles promoted the GDP development of these pilot cities and controlled the growth of CO2 emissions, but the actual effects varied by region and context of implementation. According to the research results, we conducted in-depth exploration on the actual impact of different policies on CO2 emissions. Then, we proposed corresponding measures for relevant emission reduction policies. Graphical abstract