Sustainable agricultural development under different climate change scenarios for El Moghra region, Western Desert of Egypt

The Egyptian government launched a national project for the reclamation of 1.5 million acres including the El Moghra region, in the Western Desert of Egypt. This study investigated the long-term impact of climate change on the current agricultural development plan in the El Moghra region. An assessment of the sustainability of this agricultural development was performed using different climate scenarios until 2100. Meteorological data were downloaded from CORDEX-Africa under two emission (representative concentration pathways, RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) using four climate models. According to Egyptian government policies, barley, sugar beet, quinoa, and canola are considered seasonal crops while date palms, olives, and jojoba are allowed as permanent crops for El Moghra. To investigate maximized crop production and net crop revenue, an optimization analysis was performed for the El Moghra region. The results showed that the crop yield may decrease from 9.0 to 24.1 and 9.3 to 45.9% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, by 2100. The total required crop area based on the demand was about 38,700 and 41,000 acres by 2100, and the corresponding irrigation water requirements were about 156 and 176 million cubic meters (MCM) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The results of the optimization calculations illustrated that there is potential to increase the cultivated area by 34.3 and 23.1% with total irrigation water requirements of 202 and 208 MCM under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, by 2100. It thus appears that the proposed governmental agricultural development plan for the El Moghra region is sustainable using available groundwater under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 until the end of the century.