Air pollution modeling to support strategic environmental assessment: case study—National Emission Reduction Plan for coal-fired thermal power plants in Serbia

The paper presents a specific method of environmental impact assessment applied in Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) for the National Emission Reduction Plan (NERP) in the Republic of Serbia, based on air quality. The specificity of the approach is in the application of a semiquantitative method of multicriteria evaluation based on air dispersion modeling and the integration of SEA goals, indicators and criteria for assessing the impact of the NERP on the quality of air and other environmental elements in this method. When predicting changes in air quality for the planning horizon to 2028, the physical, geographical and climatic characteristics of the area were taken into account, as well as technical measures to reduce SO2 emissions, since this was the dominant pollutant from the Serbian coal-fired power plants studied by the NERP. Air pollution modeling was carried out using the AERMOD software package based on the data collected, and the quantitative results obtained were used in a multicriteria evaluation as part of the SEA. The results of the research indicated the importance of applying this approach in order to significantly increase objectivity in the SEA process, since it is an important element of decision making at the strategic level. In addition, a comparative presentation of the modeling results before and after application of the NERP was an important part of the SEA process, and it provided a clear insight into expected changes in the air quality. This is a key argument for making appropriate policy decisions on spatial, energy, environmental and socio-economic development in the Republic of Serbia, which, like other developing countries, is sluggishly following global trends in energy transition.