A hybrid dynamic model for building energy performance gap analysis: a perspective of energy-related stakeholder collaboration

Lack of effective collaboration among energy-related stakeholders is considered as a critical factor that affects building energy performance. Although previous studies have explored energy-related stakeholders’ collaboration behavior, there is still a lack of simulation model that can be easily used for collaboration analysis with the consideration of dynamic nature, generality and practicability. To fill this gap, a hybrid dynamic model with the combination of system dynamic and agent-based modeling was developed in this study. Strict model structure tests and model behavior tests were conducted to validate the proposed model. To demonstrate the use of the hybrid model, a tentative exploration of the collaboration among stakeholders was presented. The simulation results showed that (1) a single policy of government subsidies has some limitations for promoting collaboration and improving building energy performance; (2) technical innovation can improve not only the rate but also the quality of collaboration; (3) the effect of long-term gain on collaboration and the building energy performance is sustained; (4) the penalties has an upper limit to reduce the building energy performance gap; (5) the integrated effect on the building energy performance may be less significant than that of the simple sum of each strategy; and (6) there is an incremental and then decreasing marginal utility of integrated strategies. The hybrid model provides quantitative research methods to better analyze the collaboration among energy-related stakeholders. Both the dynamic collaboration decision process and the bounded rationality of stakeholders have been considered.