Rice farmers at risk of water scarcity: analysis of the decisive factors in adaptation strategy acceptance

The problem of excessive water consumption in the traditional puddled transplant rice (PTR) cultivation method has increased efforts to develop the dry direct seeded rice (DDSR) system as a favorable alternative to achieve sustainable rice production. However, current data show that the rates of DDSR use in the Iranian rice production systems fall below the goals set by the higher management of agriculture. This study's primary objective was to investigate the elements that led rice farmers to fully embrace, reject, or partially use DDSR as a suggested technique for growing rice in paddy fields in order to conserve water. A cross-sectional survey was carried out in 2021 to collect data from 694 paddy farmers in Golestan province, northeastern Iran. Farmers' socioeconomic characteristics, farm management factors, and Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) concepts were all included in the data. PMT constructs such as perceived severity and perceived self-efficacy had a positive relationship with both adoption behaviors, i.e., using only DDSR and using both DDSR/PTR. Percentage of products that are self-consumed, annual income of rice farming, land area under rice cultivation, percentage of family labor force in rice farming, amount of rice yield, and using private wells as sources of irrigation water use in rice fields were identified as the predictors for both of the adoption behaviors. On the other hand, PMT constructs such as perceived vulnerability, response efficacy, and obtaining information about DDSR from extension agents were only predictors of DDSR adoption. Overall, the potential of PMT in explaining rice farmers’ behavior towards pro-water saving innovation was supported. Finally, agricultural extension programs that consider the aforementioned factors for improving the rate of DDSR adoption may fundamentally change farmers' behavior to save water in paddy fields.