Exploring the link between CO2 emissions, health expenditure, and economic growth in Türkiye: evidence from the ARDL model

In recent times, the literature has seen considerable growth in research at the intersection of CO2 emission, health expenditure, and economic growth. But looking at the literature, it appears that the relationship between health expenditures, CO2 emissions, and economic growth is unclear. To resolve this uncertainty, this study was conducted with different data, countries, and methods. To this end, the present study analyzed the nexus between CO2 emissions, health expenditure, and economic growth in Türkiye from 1975 to 2020 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) model developed by Pesaran et al. (J Appl Econ 16(3):289–326, 2001). The study reveals a connection between CO2 emissions, health spending, and economic development in Türkiye over the long term. It also highlights a short-term correlation among these factors. The study indicates that a 1% increase in economic growth results in a 0.553 and 0.297 rise in CO2 emissions in the short and long term, respectively. That is, it suggests that if economic growth in Türkiye doesn’t involve renewable energy, it could negatively affect CO2 emissions both in the short and long term. To address this, substantial efforts are needed to transition to low-carbon technologies like renewable energy and energy efficiency, aiming to reduce emissions and support long-term economic growth. The study further demonstrates that a 1% growth in health expenditure leads to a 0.124% decrease in CO2 emissions over the long term. This implies that Türkiye’s health sector could benefit from utilizing more renewable energy or using fossil fuels more efficiently. Additionally, the study warns that long-term population growth could negatively affect CO2 emissions in Türkiye.