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Parametric uncertainty analysis on hydrodynamic coefficients in groundwater numerical models using Monte Carlo method and RPEM

Author

Listed:
  • Maryam Sadat Kahe

    (University of Tehran)

  • Saman Javadi

    (University of Tehran)

  • Abbas Roozbahani

    (University of Tehran)

  • Kourosh Mohammadi

    (HLV2K Engineering Limited)

Abstract

Groundwater resources are the only source of water in many arid and semi-arid regions. It is important to manage these resources to have a sustainable development. However, there are many factors influencing the accuracy of the results in groundwater modeling. In this research, the uncertainty of two important groundwater model parameters (hydraulic conductivity and specific yield) were considered as the main sources of uncertainty in estimating water level in an unconfined aquifer, in Iran. For this purpose, a simple method called Rosenblueth Point Estimate Method (RPEM) was used to assess groundwater modeling parametric uncertainty, and its performance was compared with Monte Carlo method as a very complicated and time-consuming method. According to calibrated values of hydraulic conductivity and specific yield, several uncertainty intervals were considered to analyze uncertainty. The results showed that the optimum interval for hydraulic conductivity was 40% increase–30% decrease of the calibrated values in both Monte Carlo and RPEM methods. This interval for specific yield was 200% increase–90% decrease of the calibrated values. RPEM showed better performance using the evaluating indices in comparison with Monte Carlo method for both hydraulic conductivity and specific yield with 43% and 17% higher index values, respectively. These results can be used in groundwater management and future prediction of groundwater level.

Suggested Citation

  • Maryam Sadat Kahe & Saman Javadi & Abbas Roozbahani & Kourosh Mohammadi, 2021. "Parametric uncertainty analysis on hydrodynamic coefficients in groundwater numerical models using Monte Carlo method and RPEM," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(8), pages 11583-11606, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:23:y:2021:i:8:d:10.1007_s10668-020-01128-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-020-01128-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Mona Nemati & Mahmoud Mohammad Rezapour Tabari & Seyed Abbas Hosseini & Saman Javadi, 2021. "A Novel Approach Using Hybrid Fuzzy Vertex Method-MATLAB Framework Based on GMS Model for Quantifying Predictive Uncertainty Associated with Groundwater Flow and Transport Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(12), pages 4189-4215, September.

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