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The economic cost of the Arab Spring: the case of the Egyptian revolution

Author

Listed:
  • Cruz A. Echevarría

    (University of the Basque Country UPV/EHU)

  • Javier García-Enríquez

    (University of the Basque Country UPV/EHU)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects that the Arab Spring and the subsequent revolution had on per capita real Gross Domestic Product in Egypt. The estimation procedure that we follow is the synthetic control method. After comparing the observed evolution of Egyptian real output in the period 2011–2017 with that of synthetic Egypt, our estimates show (i) an accumulated loss in the growth rate of per capita real Gross Domestic Product of 12.04% (a yearly average of 1.56%); (ii) an accumulated loss in the per capita real Gross Domestic Product of 6279.7 dollars (a yearly average of 897.1 dollars); and (iii) an accumulated loss in the aggregate real Gross Domestic Product of 582.5 billion dollars (a yearly average of 83.2 billion dollars).

Suggested Citation

  • Cruz A. Echevarría & Javier García-Enríquez, 2020. "The economic cost of the Arab Spring: the case of the Egyptian revolution," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 1453-1477, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:59:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s00181-019-01684-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-019-01684-7
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