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Measuring the effects of monetary policy in Pakistan: a factor-augmented vector autoregressive approach

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  • Kashif Munir
  • Abdul Qayyum

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of monetary policy on macroeconomic variables in Pakistan’s economy using a data-rich environment. We used the factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) methodology, which contains 115 monthly variables for the period 1992:01 to 2010:12. We compared the results of VAR and FAVAR model and the results showed that FAVAR model explains the effects of monetary policy which are consistent with the theory and better than the VAR model. VAR model shows the existence of price puzzle and liquidity puzzle in Pakistan while FAVAR model did not provide any evidence of puzzles. Interest rate negatively influences prices, hence interest rate is a good instrument for controlling inflation in Pakistan but it takes a lag of 5 months. The transmission of monetary policy shock is faster in case of prices as compared to output in Pakistan. FAVAR model supports the effectiveness of interest rate channel in Pakistan. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

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  • Kashif Munir & Abdul Qayyum, 2014. "Measuring the effects of monetary policy in Pakistan: a factor-augmented vector autoregressive approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 843-864, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:46:y:2014:i:3:p:843-864
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-013-0702-9
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    Cited by:

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    3. Abdul RASHID & Farah WAHEED, 2021. "Forward-Backward-Looking Monetary Policy Rules: Derivation and Empirics," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 71-92, December.
    4. Abdullah, Muhammad & Gul, Zarro & Waseem, Faiza & Islam, Tanweer, 2021. "The State of Pakistan’s Economy and the Ineffectiveness of Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 112678, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Rozina Shaheen, 2020. "Credit market conditions and impact of monetary policy in a developing economy context," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 409-425, May.
    6. Tayyaba Mukhtar & Muhammad Zeeshan Younas, 2019. "Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism of Pakistan: Evidence from Bank Lending and Asset Price Channels," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(3), pages 121-139, September.
    7. Afsin Sahin & Volkan Ulke, 2015. "Farkli Belirsizlik Duzeylerinde Faiz Oraninin Makroekonomik Degiskenlere Etkileri : Turkiye Uzerine Etkilesimli Vektor Otoregresif Modeli Uygulamasi," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 15(1), pages 65-93.
    8. Elif ERER & Deniz ERER & Mustafa ÇAYIR & Nasuh Oğuzhan ALTAY, 2016. "TCMB, FED ve ECB Para Politikalarının Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerindeki Etkileri: 1994-2014 Dönemi Analizi," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 24(29).
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    10. Arikan, Cengiz & Yalcin, Yeliz, 2017. "Do The Countries’ Monetary Policies Have Spatial Impact?," MPRA Paper 83407, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; VAR; FAVAR; Price puzzle; Pakistan; C32; E52;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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