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Quarterly US Unemployment: Cycles, Seasons and Asymmetries

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  • Franses, Philip Hans

Abstract

This paper documents three stylized facts for the quarterly unemployment rate in the United States. Firstly, unemployment is asymmetric over the business cycle, i.e., it rises sharply in recessions and it falls slowly in expansions. Secondly, its seasonal fluctuations are not constant across the two business cycle stages in the sense that there is less seasonality in recession periods. Thirdly, the effect of shocks to the unemployment rate in expansions seems transitory, while this effect is permanent in recessions. Some implications of these stylized facts for empirical macroeconomics and seasonal adjustment are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Franses, Philip Hans, 1995. "Quarterly US Unemployment: Cycles, Seasons and Asymmetries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 717-725.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:20:y:1995:i:4:p:717-25
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    Cited by:

    1. Siem Jan Koopman & Kai Ming Lee, 2009. "Seasonality with trend and cycle interactions in unobserved components models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 58(4), pages 427-448, September.
    2. Alexander Vosseler & Enzo Weber, 2017. "Bayesian analysis of periodic unit roots in the presence of a break," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(38), pages 3841-3862, August.
    3. Pami Dua & Lokendra Kumawat, 2005. "Modelling and Forecasting Seasonality in Indian Macroeconomic Time Series," Working papers 136, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    4. Stevens, Philip Andrew, 2007. "Skill shortages and firms' employment behaviour," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 231-249, April.
    5. Siem Jan Koopman & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Constructing Seasonally Adjusted Data with Time‐varying Confidence Intervals," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(5), pages 509-526, December.
    6. Wells, J. M., 1997. "Modelling seasonal patterns and long-run trends in U.S. time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 407-420, September.

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