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BVAR Models with Economic Priors: An Application to the Propagation of U.S. Regional Cycles to Canada

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  • Racette, Daniel
  • Raynauld, Jacques

Abstract

To overcome the over-parameterization problems typically associated with the estimation of large VAR systems, Litterman (1979, 1986) and Doan, Litterman, and Sims (1984) have proposed the inclusion of statistical a priori information. In this paper, we investigate how economic a priori information based on regional input-output tables and trade flows statistics could help estimate a large U.S.-Canadian regional model. Instead of relying on the usual Choleski factorization, we present the variance decomposition based on a national-regional unobservable variables model. Using monthly series (total employment, 1966:1-1986:12) on five Canadian regions and four U.S. ones, we are able to characterize the north-south propagation mechanism.

Suggested Citation

  • Racette, Daniel & Raynauld, Jacques, 1994. "BVAR Models with Economic Priors: An Application to the Propagation of U.S. Regional Cycles to Canada," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 675-690.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:19:y:1994:i:4:p:675-90
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    Cited by:

    1. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2015. "Expectation formation in the foreign exchange market: a time-varying heterogeneity approach using survey data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(34-35), pages 3673-3695, July.
    2. Todd Potts & David Yerger, 2010. "Variations Across Canadian Regions in the Sensitivity to U.S. Monetary Policy," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 38(4), pages 443-454, December.
    3. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2016. "Do markets learn to rationally expect US interest rates? Evidence from survey data," Post-Print hal-01411824, HAL.
    4. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2014. "Expectation formation in the foreign exchange market: a time-varying heterogeneity approach using survey data," Working Papers hal-04141348, HAL.
    5. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2016. "Do markets learn to rationally expect US interest rates? Evidence from survey data," Working Papers hal-04141591, HAL.

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