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Testing for Hysteresis in Unemployment: An Unobserved Components Approach

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  • Jaeger, Albert
  • Parkinson, Martin

Abstract

We suggest a new test for hysteresis in unemployment based on an unobserved components model. Observed unemployment rates are decomposed into a natural rate component and a cyclical component. The impact of lagged cyclical shocks on the current natural component is the measure of hysteresis. To identify the two components of unemployment, we assume that the cyclical components is correlated with capacity utilization. The model is applied to U.S. and German data. We find no evidence of hysteresis in U.S. data. German unemployment rates exhibit substantial hysteresis. A shock of 1.0 percent to the current cyclical component permanently increases future German natural rates by about 0.5 percent. For both countries, natural rate shocks turn out to be an important impulse mechanism to explain movements in observed unemployment rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaeger, Albert & Parkinson, Martin, 1990. "Testing for Hysteresis in Unemployment: An Unobserved Components Approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 185-198.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:15:y:1990:i:2:p:185-98
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Elisabeth Lopez-Perez & Ana Rodriguez-Santiago & Emilio Congregado, 2020. "Persistence in Self-Employment Rates before the Great Lockdown: The Case of the UK," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-13, August.
    2. Engelbert Stockhammer & Rob Calvert Jump, 2022. "An Estimation of Unemployment Hysteresis," Working Papers PKWP2221, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    3. Alfred Stiassny, 1998. "Wage Setting and Hysteresis in Unemployment," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 79-107, January.
    4. Bryant, Amy & Richards, Timothy J., 1998. "Hysteresis And The Shortage Of Agricultural Labor," 1998 Annual meeting, August 2-5, Salt Lake City, UT 20858, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    5. Golpe, Antonio A. & Carmona, Monica & Congregado, Emilio, 2012. "Persistence in natural gas consumption in the US: An unobserved component model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 594-600.
    6. Pierre-Richard Agénor, 2002. "Business Cycles, Economic Crises, and the Poor," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(3), pages 145-160.
    7. T. D. Stanley, 2004. "Does unemployment hysteresis falsify the natural rate hypothesis? a meta‐regression analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 589-612, September.
    8. Bengt Assarsson & Per Jansson, 1998. "Unemployment persistence: the case of Sweden," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 25-29.
    9. Philippe Moës, 2012. "Multivariate models with dual cycles: implications for output gap and potential growth measurement," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 791-818, June.
    10. Laura M. Werner, 2020. "Hysteresis losses in the Preisach framework," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1249-1278, March.
    11. Philippe Moës, 2008. "Multivariate structural time series models with dual cycles : implications for measurement of output gap and potential growth," Working Paper Research 136, National Bank of Belgium.

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