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Improving population estimates with the use of dummy variables

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  • Donald Pursell

Abstract

The ratio correlation method of estimating county population may be improved with the use of dummy variables and stratification to represent county “type.” Unsatisfactory results were derived when the ratio correlation technique was applied to West Virginia counties using only such conventional symptomatic indicators as births, deaths, non-agricultural employment, and automobile registrations, probably due to the relatively unique absolute population decrease 1950–1960 that occurred in many counties. To improve the predictive power of the technique: counties were stratified along the lines recently suggested by Rosenberg; dummy variables were introduced to represent such county characteristics as region or rate of development; and stratification and dummy variables were combined in a single test. The average 1960 estimating error for the 55 counties was reduced from 4.6 to 2.3 percent when dummy variables and stratification were used to supplement the conventional indicators. Copyright Population Association of America 1970

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  • Donald Pursell, 1970. "Improving population estimates with the use of dummy variables," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 7(1), pages 87-91, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:7:y:1970:i:1:p:87-91
    DOI: 10.2307/2060025
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Goldberg & V. R. Rao & N. K. Namboodiri, 1964. "A Test of the Accuracy of Ratio Correlation Population Estimates," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 40(1), pages 100-102.
    2. Robert C. Schmitt & Albert H. Crosetti, 1954. "Accuracy of the Ratio-Correlation Method for Estimating Postcensal Population," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 30(3), pages 279-281.
    3. Harry Rosenberg, 1968. "Improving Current Population Estimates through Stratification," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 44(3), pages 331-338.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. William O’Hare, 1976. "Report on a multiple regression method for making population estimates," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 13(3), pages 369-379, August.
    2. Marylou Mandell & Jeffrey Tayman, 1982. "Measuring temporal stability in regression models of population estimation," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 19(1), pages 135-146, February.
    3. W. O’Hare, 1980. "A note on the use ofregression methods in population estimates," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 17(3), pages 341-343, August.
    4. Eugene Ericksen, 1973. "A method for combining sample survey data and symptomatic indicators to obtain population estimates for local areas," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 10(2), pages 137-160, May.
    5. David Swanson, 1980. "Improvingaccuracy in multiple regression estimates of population using principles from causal modelling," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 17(4), pages 413-427, November.
    6. Stanley Smith & Bart Lewis, 1980. "Some new techniques for applying the housing unit method of local population estimation," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 17(3), pages 323-339, August.
    7. Julia Martin & William Serow, 1978. "Estimating demographic characteristics using the ratio-correlation method," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 15(2), pages 223-233, May.

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