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Online discussion threads as conversation pools: predicting the growth of discussion threads on reddit

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Listed:
  • Sameera Horawalavithana

    (University of South Florida)

  • Nazim Choudhury

    (University of South Florida)

  • John Skvoretz

    (University of South Florida)

  • Adriana Iamnitchi

    (University of South Florida)

Abstract

This paper proposes a data-driven method that forecasts groups of topic-related, overlapping, online conversation trees. Our method is generative: given a group of original posts, it generates the resulting conversation threads with timing and authorship information. We demonstrate using two large datasets from Reddit that the microscopic properties of such groups of conversations can be accurately predicted when starting from the original posts, without knowledge of the intermediate reactions to such posts. We show that our solution significantly outperforms competitive baselines in terms of predicting the conversation structure and user engagement over time. Potential benefits of this solution include the evaluation of intervention strategies to limit disinformation.

Suggested Citation

  • Sameera Horawalavithana & Nazim Choudhury & John Skvoretz & Adriana Iamnitchi, 2022. "Online discussion threads as conversation pools: predicting the growth of discussion threads on reddit," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 112-140, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:comaot:v:28:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s10588-021-09340-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10588-021-09340-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Xiao, Yunpeng & Zhang, Li & Li, Qian & Liu, Ling, 2019. "MM-SIS: Model for multiple information spreading in multiplex network," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 513(C), pages 135-146.
    2. Alexey N. Medvedev & Renaud Lambiotte & Jean-Charles Delvenne, 2019. "The anatomy of reddit: an overview of academic research," LIDAM Reprints CORE 3038, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    3. Tarek Abdelzaher & Jiawei Han & Yifan Hao & Andong Jing & Dongxin Liu & Shengzhong Liu & Hoang Hai Nguyen & David M. Nicol & Huajie Shao & Tianshi Wang & Shuochao Yao & Yu Zhang & Omar Malik & Stephen, 2020. "Multiscale online media simulation with SocialCube," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 145-174, June.
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