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The Celestial Empire: solar eclipses, political legitimacy, and economic performance in historical China

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  • Chengjiu Sun

    (Nankai University)

  • Hongfei Li

    (PipeChina Institute of Science and Technology)

Abstract

We exploit a unique historical experiment to study how changes in political legitimacy affect economic performance. In historical China, solar eclipses were interpreted as Heaven's wrath incurred by wrongdoings of the ruling class, signaling a decline in the incumbent's legitimacy. Using an original dataset covering over 2000 years, we document that when total solar eclipses occurred, climate shocks had a greater negative impact on economic performance. The key mechanism appears to be that total eclipses significantly intensified the effect of climate shocks on civil conflict. Our findings thus highlight the importance of political legitimacy during periods of economic downturn.

Suggested Citation

  • Chengjiu Sun & Hongfei Li, 2024. "The Celestial Empire: solar eclipses, political legitimacy, and economic performance in historical China," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 18(2), pages 453-491, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:cliomt:v:18:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s11698-023-00270-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11698-023-00270-3
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Political legitimacy; Solar eclipse; Economic performance; Climate shocks; Civil conflict;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N15 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Asia including Middle East
    • P48 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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