IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v46y2000i1d10.1023_a1005661220604.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Climate Change Policy Targets and the Role of Technological Change

Author

Listed:
  • Marco A. Janssen

    (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM))

  • Bert de Vries

    (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM))

Abstract

In this paper, we present results of simulation experiments with the TIME-model on the issue of mitigation strategies with regard to greenhouse gases. The TIME-model is an integrated system dynamics world energy model that takes into account the fact that the system has an inbuilt inertia and endogenous learning-by-doing dynamics, besides the more common elements of price-induced demand response and fuel substitution. First, we present four scenarios to highlight the importance of assumptions on innovations in energy technology in assessing the extent to which CO2 emissions have to be reduced. The inertia of the energy system seems to make a rise of CO2 emissions in the short term almost unavoidable. It is concluded that for the population and economic growth assumptions of the IPCC IS92a scenario, only a combination of supply- and demand-side oriented technological innovations in combination with policy measures can bring the target of CO2-concentration stabilization at 550 ppmv by the year 2100 within reach. This will probably be associated with a temporary increase in the overall energy expenditures in the world economy. Postponing the policy measures will be more disadvantageous, and less innovation in energy technology will happen.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco A. Janssen & Bert de Vries, 2000. "Climate Change Policy Targets and the Role of Technological Change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 1-28, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:46:y:2000:i:1:d:10.1023_a:1005661220604
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1005661220604
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1023/A:1005661220604
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1023/A:1005661220604?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:46:y:2000:i:1:d:10.1023_a:1005661220604. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.