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Investigating Climate Change Impacts and Thresholds: An Application of the CLIMPACTS Integrated Assessment Model for New Zealand Agriculture

Author

Listed:
  • G. J. Kenny

    (University of Waikato)

  • R. A. Warrick

    (University of Waikato)

  • B. D. Campbell

    (AgResearch, Grasslands Research Centre)

  • G. C. Sims

    (University of Waikato)

  • M. Camilleri

    (HortResearch, Mt. Albert Research Centre)

  • P. D. Jamieson

    (Crop and Food Research)

  • N. D. Mitchell

    (University of Auckland)

  • H. G. McPherson

    (HortResearch, Mt. Albert Research Centre)

  • M. J. Salinger

    (NIWA)

Abstract

The determination of `critical thresholds' is an essential task for informed policy decisions on establishing greenhouse gas emission targets. This paper presents a framework for determining critical thresholds for New Zealand agriculture, focusing on three agricultural crops – kiwifruit, grain maize, and Paspalum dilatatum – as exemplars for the fruit production, arable cropping and dairy production industries in New Zealand. The approach is based on the application of a country-scale, integrated assessment model, called CLIMPACTS. The CLIMPACTS system contains a climate change scenario generator, climate and land data, and sectoral impact models. Importantly, CLIMPACTS allows time-dependent assessments of climate change and its effects, which facilitates the identification and examination of thresholds, which largely relate to spatial changes, over time, in regions of economic importance for these crops. However, whether such thresholds are `critical' for New Zealand cannot currently be addressed by the CLIMPACTS model. The determination of `criticality' requires a fully integrated assessment in which the social, economic, and environmental costs and risks associated with these thresholds are comprehensively evaluated.

Suggested Citation

  • G. J. Kenny & R. A. Warrick & B. D. Campbell & G. C. Sims & M. Camilleri & P. D. Jamieson & N. D. Mitchell & H. G. McPherson & M. J. Salinger, 2000. "Investigating Climate Change Impacts and Thresholds: An Application of the CLIMPACTS Integrated Assessment Model for New Zealand Agriculture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 91-113, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:46:y:2000:i:1:d:10.1023_a:1005576910408
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1005576910408
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