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Save the farms: nonlinear impact of climate change on banks’ agricultural lending

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  • Teng Liu

    (University of California)

Abstract

The agricultural sector is particularly susceptible to the impact of climate change. In this paper, I investigate how vulnerability to climate change affects U.S. farms’ credit access, and demonstrates that such impact is unequally distributed across farms. I find that higher exposure to climate change, measured by temperature anomaly, reduces bank lending to farms. Such impact is persistent, nonlinear, and heterogeneous. Small and medium farms almost always experience loss of loan access. In comparison, large farms see less severe credit contraction, and in some cases may even see improvement in funding. The results highlight that factors such as farm size, income area, and agricultural region can exacerbate the unequal financial impact of climate change, with implications for the resilience of agricultural sector and the broader food system.

Suggested Citation

  • Teng Liu, 2025. "Save the farms: nonlinear impact of climate change on banks’ agricultural lending," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(4), pages 1-18, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:178:y:2025:i:4:d:10.1007_s10584-025-03907-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-025-03907-6
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