How climate change affects agricultural clean productivity in China: roles of agri-structure and digital technology

Using data of 2545 counties across China from 2000 to 2020, this study analyzes the effect of climate change on agricultural clean productivity, with a focus on the mediating role of agricultural structure and the moderating role of digital technology in this effect. Our findings indicate that an increase in the number of days with low and high temperatures has a negative impact on China’s agriculture clean productivity, while an increase in days with mild temperatures has a converse effect. Specifically, a one-day increase in temperatures within the ranges of 0–20 °C and 30–40 °C can cause agriculture clean total factor productivity to decrease by 0.0007 and 0.0242. Conversely, a one-day increase in the 20–30 °C range results in a 0.0009 increase in agriculture clean total factor productivity. The effect of precipitation on agriculture clean productivity follows an inverted U-shape pattern, with a threshold of approximately 1100 mm. Further analysis reveals that the impact of climate change on China’s agricultural clean productivity is mediated by agricultural structure, and the mediating role of the proportion of rice is greater than that of wheat. Supplementary tests indicate that digital technology plays a positive moderating role in the impact of climate change on agricultural clean productivity. And compared with telecommunication technology, the moderating role of ecological and agrometeorological observation technology is greater. These insights are instrumental in shaping climate change adaptation policies to promote China’s agricultural sustainable development through the lens of agricultural structure and digital technology.