How do people change their beliefs about climate change? A qualitative study on opinion shift in the U.S. Midwest

Beliefs and attitudes about climate change are the building blocks from which humans create and support mitigation and adaptation strategies. In the United States, 72% of the public now believes that the earth is warming and 58% believe humans are the cause. Although these figures represent some increase since 2010, they also represent a significant remaining gap in acceptance of climate change realties. While a wealth of research has identified isolated factors that influence opinions on climate change, less attention has been given to understanding the process that changes people’s opinions. Our study uniquely applies qualitative methods to examine the context and experiences underlying climate change opinion shift. We conducted in-depth interviews with 15 participants in Kansas City and its surrounding peri-urban and rural communities who had changed their beliefs on fundamental climate change realities and were purposely selected for diversity across political ideology, age, and urban/ rural residence. We inductively coded transcripts and synthesized codes into a hierarchical structure to derive themes. Findings suggest that prior to shifting beliefs, participants were similarly skeptical or rejecting of climate change, while remaining diverse in the ideologies that influenced these beliefs. For most participants, shifting beliefs were catalyzed by three key experiences: (1) distancing from ideological community, (2) desire to seek out information, and (3) solidifying experiences of gradual or epiphanic realization. Despite these common experiences, attitudes following change in beliefs remained diverse. Our framework can guide individuals and organizations in facilitating greater acceptance of climate change realities through interpersonal and public communication strategies.