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A methodology for analysing the impacts of climate change on maritime security

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  • James Brennan

    (Lancaster University)

  • Basil Germond

    (Lancaster University)

Abstract

This paper presents a methodology for developing a social Cumulative Effects Assessment (CEA) which analyses the impacts of climate change on maritime crime and maritime insecurities. The use of a CEA methodology, including the use of the Effect to Impact Pathway will enable mapping the relationships between certain ‘Activities’ (e.g. human-induced emissions of greenhouse gasses), the ‘Pressure’ engendered (e.g. warming sea temperatures) and their ‘Impacts’ (e.g. food shortages) via ‘Receptors’ (e.g. fishing communities) on specific sectors of society (in this case maritime migration and maritime crime, e.g. illegal fishing). This paper provides a Proof of Concept (PoC) for using such a methodology and shows the applicability of a multidisciplinary approach in understanding causal chains. In this PoC, the authors are generating a Non-Geographic Assessment Map that investigates the ‘Impacts’ that the human-induced greenhouse gas emissions have on maritime security. The proposed analytical tool can then be applied in further studies to assess the dependencies and synergies between climate change and the occurrence of maritime insecurity.

Suggested Citation

  • James Brennan & Basil Germond, 2024. "A methodology for analysing the impacts of climate change on maritime security," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(1), pages 1-32, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:177:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-023-03676-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03676-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pezhman Roudgarmi, 2018. "Cumulative Effects Assessment (CEA), A Review," Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management (JEAPM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(02), pages 1-18, June.
    2. Germond, Basil, 2015. "The geopolitical dimension of maritime security," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 137-142.
    3. Christian Bueger & Timothy Edmunds & Robert McCabe, 2020. "Into the sea: capacity-building innovations and the maritime security challenge," Third World Quarterly, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 228-246, February.
    4. Bobbi-Jo Dobush & Natalya D. Gallo & Melania Guerra & Bleuenn Guilloux & Elisabeth Holland & Sarah Seabrook & Lisa A. Levin, 2022. "A new way forward for ocean-climate policy as reflected in the UNFCCC Ocean and Climate Change Dialogue submissions," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 254-271, February.
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