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Has historic climate change affected the spatial distribution of water-limited wheat yield across Western Australia?

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew L. Fletcher

    (CSIRO Agriculture and Food)

  • Chao Chen

    (CSIRO Agriculture and Food)

  • Noboru Ota

    (CSIRO Agriculture and Food)

  • Roger A. Lawes

    (CSIRO Agriculture and Food)

  • Yvette M. Oliver

    (CSIRO Agriculture and Food)

Abstract

Climate change has likely impacted crop yield potential in major rain-fed crop-growing regions. However, the impact on the spatial pattern across regions is unclear. Here, the wheat belt of Western Australia was used as a case study to investigate the effect of historical climate change on the spatial patterns of water-limited crop yield. We used 117 years (1900–2016) of observed daily climate data on ~ 5 km × ~ 5 km grids to map and quantify the spatial-temporal changes in water-limited wheat yield simulated by the APSIM model. The climate data were split into four periods based on distinct changes in rainfall (Period 1, 1900–1934; Period 2, 1935–1974; Period 3, 1975–1999; and Period 4, 2000–2016). The results showed that the observed decreases in rainfall shifted the regional wheat yield potential towards the southwest of the wheat belt by an average of 70 km between the first and last periods. Observed increases in CO2 counteracted this by about half of this movement. Actual wheat yields achieved by farmers have not decreased, thanks to improvements in crop genetics and management, but the simulated decrease in water-limited yields has meant that actual yields in this region are not as high as they might have been. Future climate change is likely to continue to impact on water-limited crop yield and its spatial pattern in Western Australia. Cropping systems will need to continually evolve to cope with a changing climate, and every aspect of agronomy and genetics needs to be considered. Without continuing improvements, there will likely be a decrease in wheat yield across this cropping region.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew L. Fletcher & Chao Chen & Noboru Ota & Roger A. Lawes & Yvette M. Oliver, 2020. "Has historic climate change affected the spatial distribution of water-limited wheat yield across Western Australia?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 159(3), pages 347-364, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:159:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-020-02666-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02666-w
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Chao & Fletcher, Andrew & Ota, Noboru & Oliver, Yvette & Lawes, Roger, 2023. "Integrating long fallow into wheat-based cropping systems in Western Australia: Spatial pattern of yield and economic responses," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    2. Hao, Shirui & Ryu, Dongryeol & Western, Andrew & Perry, Eileen & Bogena, Heye & Franssen, Harrie Jan Hendricks, 2021. "Performance of a wheat yield prediction model and factors influencing the performance: A review and meta-analysis," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    3. Yanxi Zhao & Dengpan Xiao & Huizi Bai & Jianzhao Tang & De Li Liu & Yongqing Qi & Yanjun Shen, 2022. "The Prediction of Wheat Yield in the North China Plain by Coupling Crop Model with Machine Learning Algorithms," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-19, December.
    4. Neal Hughes & Michael Lu & Wei Ying Soh & Kenton Lawson, 2022. "Modelling the effects of climate change on the profitability of Australian farms," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(1), pages 1-22, May.
    5. Chancellor, Will & Hughes, Neal & Zhao, Shiji & Soh, Wei Ying & Valle, Haydn & Boult, Christopher, 2021. "Controlling for the effects of climate on total factor productivity: A case study of Australian farms," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    6. Amanda R. Bourne & John Bruce & Meredith M. Guthrie & Li-Ann Koh & Kaylene Parker & Stanley Mastrantonis & Igor Veljanoski, 2023. "Identifying areas of high drought risk in southwest Western Australia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(2), pages 1361-1385, September.
    7. Yanxi Zhao & Dengpan Xiao & Huizi Bai & Jianzhao Tang & Deli Liu, 2022. "Future Projection for Climate Suitability of Summer Maize in the North China Plain," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-20, February.
    8. Flohr, B.M. & Ouzman, J. & McBeath, T.M. & Rebetzke, G.J. & Kirkegaard, J.A. & Llewellyn, R.S., 2021. "Redefining the link between rainfall and crop establishment in dryland cropping systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).

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