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A comparison of sea level projections based on the observed and reconstructed sea level data around the Korean Peninsula

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  • Kwang-Yul Kim

    (Seoul National University)

  • Yeonjoo Kim

    (Yonsei University)

Abstract

In an attempt to estimate accurate local sea level change, “sea level trend” modes are identified and separated from natural variability via cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function (CSEOF) analysis applied to both the tide gauge data (1965–2013) and the reconstruction data (1950–2010) around the Korean Peninsula. For the tide gauge data, ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method is also used to estimate sea level trend to understand an uncertainty from different analysis tools. The three trend models—linear, quadratic, and exponential—are fitted to the amplitude time series of the trend mode so that future projection of sea level can be made. Based on a quadratic model, the rate of local sea level rise (SLR) is expected to be 4.63 ± 1.1 mm year−1 during 2010–2060. The estimates of “local” sea level trend vary up to ∼30%. It should be noted that, although the three trend models estimate similar sea level trends during the observational period, the projected sea level trend and subsequent SLR differ significantly from one model to another and between the tide gauge data and the reconstruction data; this results in a substantial uncertainty in the future SLR around the Korean Peninsula.

Suggested Citation

  • Kwang-Yul Kim & Yeonjoo Kim, 2017. "A comparison of sea level projections based on the observed and reconstructed sea level data around the Korean Peninsula," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 142(1), pages 23-36, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:142:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-017-1901-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1901-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. B. D. Hamlington & M. W. Strassburg & R. R. Leben & W. Han & R. S. Nerem & K-Y. Kim, 2014. "Uncovering an anthropogenic sea-level rise signal in the Pacific Ocean," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(9), pages 782-785, September.
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