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Shifting patterns of mild weather in response to projected radiative forcing

Author

Listed:
  • Karin van der Wiel

    (Princeton University
    National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration)

  • Sarah B. Kapnick

    (National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration)

  • Gabriel A. Vecchi

    (National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration)

Abstract

Climate change has been shown to impact the mean climate state and climate extremes. Though climate extremes have the potential to disrupt society, extreme conditions are rare by definition. In contrast, mild weather occurs frequently and many human activities are built around it. We provide a global analysis of mild weather based on simple criteria and explore changes in response to radiative forcing. We find a slight global mean decrease in the annual number of mild days projected both in the near future (−4 days per year, 2016–2035) and at the end of this century (−10 days per year, 2081–2100). Projected seasonal and regional redistributions of mild days are substantially greater. These changes are larger than the interannual variability of mild weather caused by El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Finally, we show an observed global decrease in the recent past, and that observed regional changes in mild weather resemble projections.

Suggested Citation

  • Karin van der Wiel & Sarah B. Kapnick & Gabriel A. Vecchi, 2017. "Shifting patterns of mild weather in response to projected radiative forcing," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(3), pages 649-658, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:140:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1885-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1885-9
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    Cited by:

    1. Jonathon Day & Natalie Chin & Sandra Sydnor & Melissa Widhalm & Kalim U. Shah & Leslie Dorworth, 2021. "Implications of climate change for tourism and outdoor recreation: an Indiana, USA, case study," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 1-21, December.
    2. Junjun Cao & Guoyong Leng & Peng Yang & Qingbo Zhou & Wenbin Wu, 2022. "Variability in Crop Response to Spatiotemporal Variation in Climate in China, 1980–2014," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-13, July.
    3. Cindy C. Yañez & Francesca M. Hopkins & William C. Porter, 2020. "Projected impacts of climate change on tourism in the Coachella Valley, California," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 707-721, September.

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