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Climatic and societal impacts of a volcanic double event at the dawn of the Middle Ages

Author

Listed:
  • Matthew Toohey

    (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel
    Max Planck Institute for Meteorology)

  • Kirstin Krüger

    (University of Oslo)

  • Michael Sigl

    (Paul Scherrer Institut
    Desert Research Institute)

  • Frode Stordal

    (University of Oslo
    University of Oslo)

  • Henrik Svensen

    (University of Oslo)

Abstract

Volcanic activity in and around the year 536 CE led to severe cold and famine, and has been speculatively linked to large-scale societal crises around the globe. Using a coupled aerosol-climate model, with eruption parameters constrained by recently re-dated ice core records and historical observations of the aerosol cloud, we reconstruct the radiative forcing resulting from a sequence of two major volcanic eruptions in 536 and 540 CE. We estimate that the decadal-scale Northern Hemisphere (NH) extra-tropical radiative forcing from this volcanic “double event” was larger than that of any period in existing reconstructions of the last 1200 years. Earth system model simulations including the volcanic forcing show peak NH mean temperature anomalies reaching more than −2 °C, and show agreement with the limited number of available maximum latewood density temperature reconstructions. The simulations also produce decadal-scale anomalies of Arctic sea ice. The simulated cooling is interpreted in terms of probable impacts on agricultural production in Europe, and implies a high likelihood of multiple years of significant decreases in crop production across Scandinavia, supporting the theory of a connection between the 536 and 540 eruptions and evidence of societal crisis dated to the mid-6th century.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew Toohey & Kirstin Krüger & Michael Sigl & Frode Stordal & Henrik Svensen, 2016. "Climatic and societal impacts of a volcanic double event at the dawn of the Middle Ages," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 136(3), pages 401-412, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:136:y:2016:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1648-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1648-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Viktor Koval & Oksana Borodina & Iryna Lomachynska & Piotr Olczak & Anzor Mumladze & Dominika Matuszewska, 2022. "Model Analysis of Eco-Innovation for National Decarbonisation Transition in Integrated European Energy System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-19, May.
    2. Joel D. Gunn & John W. Day & William J. Folan & Matthew Moerschbaecher, 2019. "Geo-cultural Time: Advancing Human Societal Complexity Within Worldwide Constraint Bottlenecks—A Chronological/Helical Approach to Understanding Human–Planetary Interactions," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 1-19, September.
    3. Natalia Pardo & Mónica Lucía Espinosa & Catalina González-Arango & Miguel Angel Cabrera & Susana Salazar & Sonia Archila & Nancy Palacios & Diana Prieto & Ricardo Camacho & Leonardo Parra-Agudelo, 2021. "Worlding resilience in the Doña Juana Volcano-Páramo, Northern Andes (Colombia): A transdisciplinary view," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(2), pages 1845-1880, June.

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