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Exploring climate change vulnerability across sectors and scenarios using indicators of impacts and coping capacity

Author

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  • R. Dunford
  • P. Harrison
  • J. Jäger
  • M. Rounsevell
  • R. Tinch

Abstract

Addressing climate change vulnerability requires an understanding of both the level of climate impacts and the capacity of the exposed population to cope. This study developed a methodology for allowing users to explore vulnerability to changes in ecosystem services as a result of climatic and socio-economic changes. It focuses on the vulnerability of Europe across multiple sectors by combining the outputs of a regional integrated assessment (IA) model, the CLIMSAVE IA Platform, with maps of coping capacity based on the five capitals approach. The presented methodology enables stakeholder-derived socio-economic futures to be represented within a quantitative integrated modelling framework in a way that changes spatially and temporally with the socio-economic storyline. Vulnerability was mapped for six key ecosystem services in 40 combined climate and socio-economic scenarios. The analysis shows that, whilst the north and west of Europe are generally better placed to cope with climate impacts than the south and east, coping could be improved in all areas. Furthermore, whilst the lack of coping capacity in dystopian scenarios often leads to greater vulnerability, there are complex interactions between sectors that lead to patterns of vulnerability that vary spatially, with scenario and by sector even within the more utopian futures. Copyright The Author(s) 2015

Suggested Citation

  • R. Dunford & P. Harrison & J. Jäger & M. Rounsevell & R. Tinch, 2015. "Exploring climate change vulnerability across sectors and scenarios using indicators of impacts and coping capacity," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 128(3), pages 339-354, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:128:y:2015:i:3:p:339-354
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1162-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alberini, Anna & Chiabai, Aline & Muehlenbachs, Lucija, 2005. "Using Expert Judgment to Assess Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change: Evidence From a Conjoint Choice Survey," Sustainability Indicators and Environmental Valuation Working Papers 12216, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
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    1. Onoja, Anthony Ojonimi, 2023. "Determinants of arable crop farmers’ decisions to adapt to climate change risks in Nigeria," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 18(1), April.
    2. Camila Flórez Bossio & James Ford & Danielle Labbé, 2019. "Adaptive capacity in urban areas of developing countries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 157(2), pages 279-297, November.
    3. Yeora Chae & Seo Hyung Choi & Yong Jee Kim, 2020. "Climate Change Policy Implications of Sustainable Development Pathways in Korea at Sub-National Scale," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-18, May.
    4. Holman, I.P. & Brown, C & Janes, V & Sandars, D, 2017. "Can we be certain about future land use change in Europe? A multi-scenario, integrated-assessment analysis," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 126-135.
    5. Guillaume Rohat & Johannes Flacke & Hy Dao & Martin Maarseveen, 2018. "Co-use of existing scenario sets to extend and quantify the shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(3), pages 619-636, December.

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