IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v128y2015i3p169-186.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Developing a reduced-form ensemble of climate change scenarios for Europe and its application to selected impact indicators

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Dubrovsky
  • Miroslav Trnka
  • Ian Holman
  • Eva Svobodova
  • Paula Harrison

Abstract

This paper presents a method for identifying a representative subset of global climate models (GCMs) for use in large-scale climate impact research. Based on objective criteria (GCM performance in reproducing the seasonal cycle of temperature and precipitation, and a subset ability to represent future inter-GCM variability), two candidate subsets are selected from a reference set of 16 GCMs. An additional subset based on subjective expert judgement is also analysed. The representativeness of the three subsets is validated (with respect to the reference set) and compared for future changes in temperature, precipitation and Palmer drought index Z (direct validation), and occurrence of the European corn borer and snow-cover characteristics implemented in the CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform (indirect validation). The direct validation indicates that one of the objective-based subsets (ECHAM5/MPI-OM, CSIRO-Mk3.0, HadGEM1, GFDL-CM2.1 and IPSL-CM4 models) provides the best choice for the Europe-wide climate change impact study. Its performance is balanced between regions, seasons and validation statistics. However, the expert-judgement-based subset achieved slightly better results in the indirect validation. The differences between the subsets and the reference set are generally much lower for the impact indices compared to their mean (across all GCMs in the subset) changes due to projected climate change. The ranking of the candidate subsets differs between regions, climatic characteristics and seasons, demonstrating that the subset suitability for a specific impact study depends on the target region and the roles of individual seasons and/or climatic variables on the processes being studied. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Dubrovsky & Miroslav Trnka & Ian Holman & Eva Svobodova & Paula Harrison, 2015. "Developing a reduced-form ensemble of climate change scenarios for Europe and its application to selected impact indicators," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 128(3), pages 169-186, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:128:y:2015:i:3:p:169-186
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1297-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10584-014-1297-7
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-014-1297-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anonymous, 2014. "Introduction to the Issue," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 1-2, May.
    2. N/A, 2004. "Index for 2004," European Union Politics, , vol. 5(4), pages 511-512, December.
    3. Anonymous, 2014. "Introduction to the Issue," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(2), pages 109-110, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Holman, I.P. & Brown, C & Janes, V & Sandars, D, 2017. "Can we be certain about future land use change in Europe? A multi-scenario, integrated-assessment analysis," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 126-135.
    2. Trnka, Miroslav & Vizina, Adam & Hanel, Martin & Balek, Jan & Fischer, Milan & Hlavinka, Petr & Semerádová, Daniela & Štěpánek, Petr & Zahradníček, Pavel & Skalák, Petr & Eitzinger, Josef & Dubrovský,, 2022. "Increasing available water capacity as a factor for increasing drought resilience or potential conflict over water resources under present and future climate conditions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. CHEN, Helen S.Y., 2020. "Designing Sustainable Humanitarian Supply Chains," OSF Preprints m82ar, Center for Open Science.
    2. Jochen Wulf, 2020. "Development of an AHP hierarchy for managing omnichannel capabilities: a design science research approach," Business Research, Springer;German Academic Association for Business Research, vol. 13(1), pages 39-68, April.
    3. Maggie O’Neill & Ruth Penfold-Mounce & David Honeywell & Matt Coward-Gibbs & Harriet Crowder & Ivan Hill, 2021. "Creative Methodologies for a Mobile Criminology: Walking as Critical Pedagogy," Sociological Research Online, , vol. 26(2), pages 247-268, June.
    4. Getz, Donald & Page, Stephen J., 2016. "Progress and prospects for event tourism research," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 593-631.
    5. Schipper, Burkhard C., 2021. "Discovery and equilibrium in games with unawareness," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    6. Kumar, Kaushalendra & Shukla, Ankita & Singh, Abhishek & Ram, Faujdar & Kowal, Paul, 2016. "Association between wealth and health among older adults in rural China and India," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 7(C), pages 43-52.
    7. Urša Golob & Mark A. P. Davies & Joachim Kernstock & Shaun M. Powell, 2020. "Trending topics plus future challenges and opportunities in brand management," Journal of Brand Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 27(2), pages 123-129, March.
    8. Eunae Yoo & Elliot Rabinovich & Bin Gu, 2020. "The Growth of Follower Networks on Social Media Platforms for Humanitarian Operations," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 29(12), pages 2696-2715, December.
    9. Ya Sun & Gongyuan Wang & Haiying Feng, 2021. "Linguistic Studies on Social Media: A Bibliometric Analysis," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(3), pages 21582440211, September.
    10. Winskell, Kate & Sabben, Gaëlle, 2016. "Sexual stigma and symbolic violence experienced, enacted, and counteracted in young Africans’ writing about same-sex attraction," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 143-150.
    11. Shisong Jiang, 2021. "“When Paradigms Are Out of Place”: Embracing Eclecticism in Legal Scholarship by Academic Turns," Laws, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-16, October.
    12. Florian Léon, 2022. "The elusive quest for high-growth firms in Africa: when other metrics of performance say nothing," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 225-246, January.
    13. Houshmand Masoumi, 2021. "Residential Location Choice in Istanbul, Tehran, and Cairo: The Importance of Commuting to Work," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-18, May.
    14. Zachary P Neal, 2017. "Well connected compared to what? Rethinking frames of reference in world city network research," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 49(12), pages 2859-2877, December.
    15. Tanja Lepistö & Tiina Mäkitalo-Keinonen & Tiina Valjakka, 0. "Opportunity recognition in a hub-governed network – insights from garage services," International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-24.
    16. Holbig, Heike, 2015. "The Plasticity of Regions: A Social Sciences–Cultural Studies Dialogue on Asia-Related Area Studies," GIGA Working Papers 267, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    17. Wagner, Sebastian & Brandt, Tobias & Neumann, Dirk, 2016. "In free float: Developing Business Analytics support for carsharing providers," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 59(PA), pages 4-14.
    18. Lyall, Catherine & Tait, Joyce, 2019. "Beyond the limits to governance: New rules of engagement for the tentative governance of the life sciences," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(5), pages 1128-1137.
    19. Anna Karpova & Aleksei Savelev & Nataliya Maksimova, 2021. "Modeling the Process of School Shooters Radicalization (Russian Case)," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-26, December.
    20. Heifetz Aviad & Meier Martin & Schipper Burkhard C., 2021. "Prudent Rationalizability in Generalized Extensive-form Games with Unawareness," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 525-556, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:128:y:2015:i:3:p:169-186. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.