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Consequences of climate change for the soil climate in Central Europe and the central plains of the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Miroslav Trnka
  • Kurt Kersebaum
  • Josef Eitzinger
  • Michael Hayes
  • Petr Hlavinka
  • Mark Svoboda
  • Martin Dubrovský
  • Daniela Semerádová
  • Brian Wardlow
  • Eduard Pokorný
  • Martin Možný
  • Don Wilhite
  • Zdeněk Žalud

Abstract

This study aims to evaluate soil climate quantitatively under present and projected climatic conditions across Central Europe (12.1°–18.9° E and 46.8°–51.1° N) and the U.S. Central Plains (90°–104° W and 37°–49° N), with a special focus on soil temperature, hydric regime, drought risk and potential productivity (assessed as a period suitable for crop growth). The analysis was completed for the baselines (1961–1990 for Europe and 1985–2005 for the U.S.) and time horizons of 2025, 2050 and 2100 based on the outputs of three global circulation models using two levels of climate sensitivity. The results indicate that the soil climate (soil temperature and hydric soil regimes) will change dramatically in both regions, with significant consequences for soil genesis. However, the predicted changes of the pathways are very uncertain because of the range of future climate systems predicted by climate models. Nevertheless, our findings suggest that the risk of unfavourable dry years will increase, resulting in greater risk of soil erosion and lower productivity. The projected increase in the variability of dry and wet events combined with the uncertainty (particularly in the U.S.) poses a challenge for selecting the most appropriate adaptation strategies and for setting adequate policies. The results also suggest that the soil resources are likely be under increased pressure from changes in climate. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Miroslav Trnka & Kurt Kersebaum & Josef Eitzinger & Michael Hayes & Petr Hlavinka & Mark Svoboda & Martin Dubrovský & Daniela Semerádová & Brian Wardlow & Eduard Pokorný & Martin Možný & Don Wilhite &, 2013. "Consequences of climate change for the soil climate in Central Europe and the central plains of the United States," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 405-418, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:120:y:2013:i:1:p:405-418
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0786-4
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    1. AfDB AfDB, . "African Development Report 2004," African Development Report, African Development Bank, number 21 edited by Adeleke Oluwole Salami, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dae Jeong & Laxmi Sushama & M. Naveed Khaliq, 2014. "The role of temperature in drought projections over North America," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(2), pages 289-303, November.
    2. Žalud, Zdeněk & Hlavinka, Petr & Prokeš, Karel & Semerádová, Daniela & Balek Jan, & Trnka, Miroslav, 2017. "Impacts of water availability and drought on maize yield – A comparison of 16 indicators," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 126-135.
    3. Trnka, Miroslav & Vizina, Adam & Hanel, Martin & Balek, Jan & Fischer, Milan & Hlavinka, Petr & Semerádová, Daniela & Štěpánek, Petr & Zahradníček, Pavel & Skalák, Petr & Eitzinger, Josef & Dubrovský,, 2022. "Increasing available water capacity as a factor for increasing drought resilience or potential conflict over water resources under present and future climate conditions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    4. Zhang, Qianxi & Li, Fei, 2022. "Correlation between land use spatial and functional transition: a case study of Shaanxi Province, China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).

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