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Projected climate change impact on Baltic Sea cyanobacteria

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  • Inga Hense
  • H. Meier
  • Sebastian Sonntag

Abstract

Compared to other phytoplankton groups, nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria generally prefer high water temperatures for growth and are therefore expected to benefit from global warming. We use a coupled biological-physical model with an advanced cyanobacteria life cycle model to compare the abundance of cyanobacteria in the Baltic Sea during two different time periods (1969–1998; 2069–2098). For the latter, we find prolonged growth and a more than twofold increase in the climatologically (30 years) averaged cyanobacteria biomass and nitrogen fixation. Additional sensitivity experiments indicate that the biological-physical feedback mechanism through light absorption becomes more important with global warming. In general, we find a nonlinear response of cyanobacteria to changes in the atmospheric forcing fields as a result of life-cycle related feedback mechanisms. Overall, the sensitivity of the cyanobacteria-driven system suggests that biological-physical and life-cycle related feedback mechanisms are important and must therefore be included in future projection studies. Copyright The Author(s) 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Inga Hense & H. Meier & Sebastian Sonntag, 2013. "Projected climate change impact on Baltic Sea cyanobacteria," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(2), pages 391-406, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:119:y:2013:i:2:p:391-406
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0702-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hense, Inga & Beckmann, Aike, 2010. "The representation of cyanobacteria life cycle processes in aquatic ecosystem models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(19), pages 2330-2338.
    2. Hense, Inga & Burchard, Hans, 2010. "Modelling cyanobacteria in shallow coastal seas," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(2), pages 238-244.
    3. D. Karl & R. Letelier & L. Tupas & J. Dore & J. Christian & D. Hebel, 1997. "The role of nitrogen fixation in biogeochemical cycling in the subtropical North Pacific Ocean," Nature, Nature, vol. 388(6642), pages 533-538, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Somayeh Zangiabadi & Hassan Zaremaivan & LIuis Brotons & Hossein Mostafavi & Hojjatollah Ranjbar, 2021. "Using climatic variables alone overestimate climate change impacts on predicting distribution of an endemic species," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(9), pages 1-17, September.
    2. Ahlvik, Lassi & Hyytiäinen, Kari, 2015. "Value of adaptation in water protection — Economic impacts of uncertain climate change in the Baltic Sea," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 231-240.

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