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Analysis of trends and sudden changes in long-term environmental data from King George Island (Antarctica): relationships between global climatic oscillations and local system response

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  • A. Bers
  • Fernando Momo
  • Irene Schloss
  • Doris Abele

Abstract

The Western Antarctic Peninsula is one of the most rapidly warming regions on earth. It is therefore important to analyze long-term trends and inter-annual patterns of change in major environmental parameters to understand the process underlying climate change in Western Antarctica. Since many polar long-term data series are fragmented and cannot be analysed with common time series analysis tools, we present statistical approaches that can deal with missing values. We applied U-statistics after Pettit and Buishand to detect abrupt changes, dynamic factor analysis to detect functional relationships, and additive modelling to detect patterns in time related to climatic cycles such as the Southern Annular Mode and El Niño Southern Oscillation in a long-term environmental data set from King George Island (WAP), covering 20 years. Our results not only reveal sudden changes for sea surface temperature and salinity, but also clear patterns in all investigated variables (sea surface temperature, salinity, suspended particulate matter and Chlorophyll a) that can directly be related to climatic cycles. Our results complement previous findings on climate related changes in the King George Island Region and provide insight into the environmental conditions and climatic drivers of system change in the study area. Hence, our statistical analyses may prove valuable for other polar environmental data sets and contribute to a better understanding of the regional variability of climate change and its impact on coastal systems. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2013

Suggested Citation

  • A. Bers & Fernando Momo & Irene Schloss & Doris Abele, 2013. "Analysis of trends and sudden changes in long-term environmental data from King George Island (Antarctica): relationships between global climatic oscillations and local system response," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 116(3), pages 789-803, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:116:y:2013:i:3:p:789-803
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0523-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Joao Tovar Jalles, 2009. "Structural time series models and the Kalman filter: a concise review," Nova SBE Working Paper Series wp541, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Guillaumot, Charlène & Saucède, Thomas & Morley, Simon A. & Augustine, Starrlight & Danis, Bruno & Kooijman, Sebastiaan, 2020. "Can DEB models infer metabolic differences between intertidal and subtidal morphotypes of the Antarctic limpet Nacella concinna (Strebel, 1908)?," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 430(C).
    2. Gómez, M. & Domínguez, M. C., 2015. "Seasonal copula models for the analysis of glacier discharge at King George Island, Antarctica," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws1513, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.

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