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The role of the land use, land use change and forestry sector in achieving Annex I reduction pledges

Author

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  • Giacomo Grassi
  • Michel Elzen
  • Andries Hof
  • Roberto Pilli
  • Sandro Federici

Abstract

Annex I Parties may receive credits or debits from Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) activities, contributing to achieving individual emission reduction targets. In the Durban climate negotiations, Parties agreed new LULUCF accounting rules for the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (CP2). By using these new rules, this paper presents key differences among Parties at the minimum (assuming no additional action) and potential (assuming additional actions) contribution of the forest-related LULUCF activities in achieving the pledges for 2020. Overall, the potential contribution of LULUCF is relatively modest (up to about 2 % of 1990 emissions) for the EU, the Annex I Parties likely joining the CP2, and for the Annex I Parties that joined the CP1 as a whole. However, for specific Parties, LULUCF can make a substantial contribution to achieving the pledges. For New Zealand, for instance, the potential contribution of future LULUCF credits may equal 33 % of its 1990 emission level. For Australia, the pledges are expressed relative to 2000 emission levels including LULUCF emissions. Given that LULUCF emissions have strongly declined between 1990 and 2000, and a further decline in foreseen by 2020 (based on Australia’s projections), the minimum contribution of LULUCF to meet the Australian pledges appears to be about 19 % and 7 % relative to its 1990 and 2000 emission level, respectively. A further 3 % potential contribution is estimated from additional actions. Copyright The Author(s) 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Giacomo Grassi & Michel Elzen & Andries Hof & Roberto Pilli & Sandro Federici, 2012. "The role of the land use, land use change and forestry sector in achieving Annex I reduction pledges," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(3), pages 873-881, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:115:y:2012:i:3:p:873-881
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0584-4
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Rakhyun Kim & Brendan Mackey, 2014. "International environmental law as a complex adaptive system," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 5-24, March.
    2. Roelfsema, Mark & Elzen, Michel den & Höhne, Niklas & Hof, Andries F. & Braun, Nadine & Fekete, Hanna & Böttcher, Hannes & Brandsma, Ruut & Larkin, Julia, 2014. "Are major economies on track to achieve their pledges for 2020? An assessment of domestic climate and energy policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 781-796.
    3. Pilli, Roberto & Grassi, Giacomo & Kurz, Werner A. & Smyth, Carolyn E. & Blujdea, Viorel, 2013. "Application of the CBM-CFS3 model to estimate Italy's forest carbon budget, 1995–2020," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 266(C), pages 144-171.
    4. Claudine Chen & Johannes Gütschow & Marion Vieweg & Kirsten Macey & Michiel Schaeffer, 2013. "Impact of the Doha outcome on surplus emission allowances and their effect on developed country emissions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(4), pages 845-857, October.
    5. Jani Laturi & Jussi Lintunen & Jussi Uusivuori, 2016. "Modeling The Economics Of The Reference Levels For Forest Management Emissions In The Eu," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(03), pages 1-22, August.
    6. Giacomo Grassi & Sandro Federici & Frédéric Achard, 2013. "Implementing conservativeness in REDD+ is realistic and useful to address the most uncertain estimates," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(2), pages 269-275, July.
    7. Chin-Hsien Yu & Bruce A. McCarl, 2018. "The Water Implications of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation: Effects on Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-22, July.

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