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Comparison of power plants’ risks with multi criteria decision models

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  • Gábor Regős

Abstract

The aim of the paper is to compare the general risk of the four most important energy chains (coal, nuclear, gas, hydro). Two different multi-criteria decision models, the Analytic Hierarchy Process and the PROMETHEE method have been applied. The chosen risk criteria are: severe accidents, terrorism, environmental and health risks, risk of price changes. The first part of the paper discusses the risk criteria separately. In the second part the results of the comparison are given by using an arbitrarily chosen weight system. Sensitivity analysis has been executed to extend the validity of the results and to demonstrate the analytic strength of the multi-criteria approach. Rank is the same for each model: the least risky technology is the hydro, followed by the coal and the natural gas technology, while the riskiest technology is the nuclear one. The results are robust against the sensitivity analysis. Advantages and limits of our approach are also discussed in the paper. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Gábor Regős, 2013. "Comparison of power plants’ risks with multi criteria decision models," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 21(4), pages 845-865, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:cejnor:v:21:y:2013:i:4:p:845-865
    DOI: 10.1007/s10100-012-0257-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. JosÉ Figueira & Salvatore Greco & Matthias Ehrogott, 2005. "Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis: State of the Art Surveys," International Series in Operations Research and Management Science, Springer, number 978-0-387-23081-8, April.
    2. Yoram Wind & Thomas L. Saaty, 1980. "Marketing Applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(7), pages 641-658, July.
    3. Arianne de Blaeij & Raymond J.G.M. Florax & Piet Rietveld & Erik T. Verhoef, 2000. "The Value of Statistical Life in Road Safety: A Meta-Analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 00-089/3, Tinbergen Institute.
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